Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

塔里木油田环境空气质量状况及评价

根据塔里木油田１９９３－１９９６年环境空气监测数据，对其环境空气质量状况进行了分析和评价。     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

灰色系统模型GM（1,1）在大气环境浓度预测中的应用

运用灰色系统理论，结合实例详细介绍了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在大气环境浓度预测中的应用。     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

灰色系统模型在总悬浮物预测中的应用

以１９８６－１９９４年东北某城市总悬浮物统计资料为依据，应用灰色系统理论ＧＭ（１，１）模型对总量浮物数值进行预测分析。     

选择双波长分光光度法测定水中余氯

余氯在pH6.5条件下与PADA发生显色反应,本文根据稳定悬浮颗粒对光的吸收行为研究选择波长测定水体中余氯,实验证明在450～515nm波长范围内任意选择两波长比色按照推导公式和模型计算余氯浓度,测定方便结果准确,且计算模型稳定,几乎不受操作环境影响。适合于废水和天然水的监测。     

浅谈小型餐饮服务业排污申报登记

简述了小型餐饮服务业的特点，指出排污申报登记制度落实难、废水中各污染物排放量核定难及申报登记表设计欠合理是小型餐饮服务业在排污申报登记中存在的主要问题。提出，应加大宣传力度，进一步提高餐饮服务业业主以及广大公民的环保意识；制定较合理的排污量核算系数，修订申报内容；实行《排污申报登记注册证》制度，强化执法力度，以促进小型餐饮服务业全面实施排污申报登记制度。     

多介质环境目标值的应用

本文概述了多介质目标德的SAM/Ⅰ的方法。多介质目标值包括环境目标值和排放目标值。点源分析包括SAM/ⅠA,SAM/ⅠB,SAM/Ⅰ,SAM/Ⅱ。在缺少环境质量标准的情况下,使用多介质环境目标值有较强的适用性,且具有省时、省力、经济等特点。本文将多介质目标值的SAM/ⅠA点源分析方法引入聚氯乙烯生产废水的环境评价中,取得较为满意的结果。